Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 34.740609 37.662735 40.846875 44.598238 48.928606 53.809728 59.784645
2025-02-16 30.010980 33.874375 38.374678 44.091037 51.290807 60.251211 72.579190
2025-02-23 27.081681 31.347855 36.533563 43.459898 52.734690 65.162496 83.943519
2025-03-02 24.884202 29.336450 34.921082 42.670982 53.563084 69.077513 94.539180
2025-03-09 23.304515 27.894122 33.804733 42.281082 54.716276 73.455181 106.783754
2025-03-16 21.688040 26.244727 32.226519 41.016819 54.340632 75.329232 115.227131
2025-03-23 21.218095 26.051592 32.561919 42.453468 58.149626 84.523811 140.067834
2025-03-30 20.300260 25.173622 31.855188 42.248322 59.296140 89.363463 158.081327
2025-04-06 19.392633 24.244745 30.995315 41.704482 59.775313 93.035990 175.045452
2025-04-13 18.368750 23.092647 29.731189 40.407429 58.786009 93.671462 184.758058
2025-04-20 18.113232 23.007861 30.016811 41.584378 62.280793 104.051956 227.146982
2025-04-27 17.754956 22.749691 30.016866 42.281276 64.984888 113.460441 274.563654
2025-05-04 17.223562 22.228840 29.609062 42.302274 66.503286 120.851204 323.809750
2025-05-11 16.634236 21.595646 28.991891 41.914829 67.178048 126.471629 373.625884
2025-05-18 16.050075 20.941314 28.300928 41.334226 67.372092 130.935566 425.277556
2025-05-25 15.478402 20.280108 27.561756 40.605506 67.155995 134.260468 477.458708
2025-06-01 15.024199 19.777400 27.049113 40.245106 67.687886 139.937589 559.022210
2025-06-08 14.436051 19.047428 26.133125 39.075447 66.284846 139.448196 594.360562
2025-06-15 14.376847 19.126946 26.540891 40.404469 70.736990 159.095423 898.555949
2025-06-22 14.032822 18.748657 26.168737 40.214818 71.606267 167.198299 1138.519320
2025-06-29 13.652016 18.298711 25.655035 39.711852 71.649458 172.403914 1391.617706
2025-07-06 13.166847 17.669191 24.813036 38.511080 69.824206 169.931781 1470.942024
2025-07-13 13.109233 17.713197 25.115162 39.600734 73.947701 193.160766 2840.580197